NR30: Next Reality’s 30 People to Watch in Augmented Reality for 2020 « Next Reality

The year 2020 was a pivotal span of time during which the word “virtual” took on a brand new meaning. Instead of referring to VR or augmented reality, the term was hijacked to describe meeting across long distances through a variety of software tools, most often through video.

But while the dominance of the term as a way to describe video meetings has been irritating to some within the AR and VR space, I would argue that this is exactly the kind of mainstreaming shift that AR needed to begin to enter the minds of those who have never truly investigated immersive computing. Although the story of “virtual” in 2020 began with video, for many, it has led them to investigate the frontier of AR and VR that has been developing all around them. This is how the shift to immersive computing begins.

Proof of this immersive computing momentum is surfacing all around us. For example, a recent ABI Research noted that funding for AR and VR companies in 2020 was robust, exceeding $2 billion, with AR companies including Mira, MAD Gaze, North, Magic Leap, and Nreal all benefiting from either additional funding or an acquisition event.

Similarly, research firm Statista forecasts that, despite the current economic pandemic-powered gloom currently hovering over the planet, investments in AR and VR will likely reach $72.8 billion by 2024, representing a 54 percent increase in the next five years. Even independent immersive computing startups like Tilt Five and Looking Glass have defied the odds and garnered new funding amid what has been widely deemed an economic recession, bordering on a depression. Black swan headwinds be damned, immersive computing’s growth curve remains aggressively on the upswing.

Underlying this unrelenting bullish climate for immersive computing is a general shift in how we communicate, and how we see one another.

Back in February, I walked down a Manhattan street, clad in an N95 mask, and watched a number of hardened New Yorkers, either unaware or unconcerned about the coming pandemic storm, chuckle and sometimes smirk at the sight of my masked face. Now, nearly a year later, masks have become a staple of life, and in many cases a way to transmit your personality, your style, your intent. This dynamic, in its own way, is also the beginning of the story of virtual avatars, both in AR and in VR.

This global event is how many AR and VR uninitiated will become comfortable with a new culture of wearing a mask — both physical and virtual — to assume a different persona, or accentuate your own. The mask, digitally rendered and real, has arrived, and thanks to AR and VR, it will never again be seen as something one hides behind, but rather as yet another common tool. Whether the mask is delivered through Snapchat, Instagram/Facebook Portal, TikTok as an AR filter or through the avatars in Microsoft’s AltspaceVR, which hosted this year’s virtual Burning Man, self-expression through all manner of masks is becoming the norm, and immersive computing will be at the forefront of this cultural shift.

The real question now is which companies and individuals wisely leaned into the radical shift in business meetings, training, entertainment, and communications 2020 forced us all to embrace? Who remained nimble and focused enough to ride the unpredictable dragon this year has pushed into all our lives? That’s what this year’s Next Reality 30 (NR30) is all about.

It’s not just about the survivors of 2020, it’s about the thrivers. When the moment called, who was ready to triple down on their vision of an immersive computing future in a practical way that sets the stage for real gains and meaningful market penetration in 2021 and beyond?

We have a few answers for you, read on!
—Adario Strange

Many know Epic Games, the company behind Unreal Engine, and its founder, Tim Sweeney, as the purveyor of software and tools that help build virtual worlds and experiences for AR, VR, and traditional 2D screens. But in 2020, Sweeney and Epic Games acted to fundamentally change the course of software history when it took on Apple in a battle over fees and what kind of access developers and app companies have to consumers.

But what’s more important than Sweeney’s decision to take on Apple was the result: He won. Sort of.

At the time, Apple charged a whopping 30 percent fee for all digital transactions on the iOS platform. That 30 percent is no small matter, it represents a hefty portion of what Apple reported as $519 billion in “billings and sales” in 2019. Over half a trillion dollars. Sweeney’s overall fight included the Google Play Store, but most of his focus, and the tech industry’s, seemed to be reserved for Apple and the iOS platform.

Currently, the trial for Epic Games vs. Apple is set for May 2021, but in the meantime, Sweeney’s actions appear to have prompted an unprecedented development: Apple backed down…somewhat. In November, Apple announced that it would reduce the fee for some users. “Small and individual developers who earn up to $1 million in revenue for the calendar year are eligible for a reduced 15 percent commission rate — half of the App Store’s standard commission,” read Apple’s official announcement last month.

Of course, Apple isn’t giving Sweeney or Epic Games the credit for the move, but the sequence of events, and the timing of the fee reduction, in addition the pressure of a government-led antitrust investigation, is fairly obvious: Apple knew it was time to blink. In the short-term, the beneficiaries will be the smaller developers of apps for iOS. This is particularly good news for developers who have devoted their efforts to ARKit. While VR can often be a download-once and play forever exercise, AR specifically lends itself to mobile use cases and the in-app transactions that can be afforded by this emerging space.

This major step back by Apple, in the wake of pressure from Sweeney and his supporters, will resonate for years and likely impact the AR economy in major ways, most notably, making the process of developing ARKit apps a lot more profitable. As for Sweeney’s lawsuit, we’ll have to wait until next year to learn its fate, but for now, AR developers hoping to launch on iOS now have a major ray of hope, thanks in part to the efforts of Epic Games and its founder.