Stanford study links Trump rallies to more than 700 coronavirus-related deaths

A working study from researchers at Stanford University found that President Trump’s campaign rallies held between June and September contributed to more than 30,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 — and more than 700 deaths.

The paper, which is still under review by the Social Science Research Network, observed case rates in counties around the 18 campaign rallies Trump held this summer and compared them to similar counties that did not host rallies. It concluded, “They increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents.”

“Our analysis strongly supports the warnings and recommendations of public health officials concerning the risk of COVID-19 transmission at large group gatherings, particularly when the degree of compliance with guidelines concerning the use of masks and social distancing is low,” the paper read. “The communities in which Trump rallies took place paid a high price in terms of disease and death.”

Trump has been criticized for continuing to hold large rallies as coronavirus cases around the country surge. The United States is currently reporting more cases than any point of the pandemic, according to the New York Times. On Saturday, the U.S. reported more than 84,000 cases, the sixth consecutive day cases were above 70,000. Deaths in the country are also up, and the seven-day positivity average has been above 5% — the World Health Organization’s recommended benchmark for easing lockdown restrictions — for two weeks, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Even though 15 of Trump’s 18 rallies were held outdoors, the study found the rallies often brought in crowd sizes “in the thousands and sometimes in the tens of thousands.” Images from the rallies often show many people close together while not wearing masks or wearing masks incorrectly.

“At least through September 2020, the degree of compliance with guidelines concerning the use of masks and social distancing was low,” the study wrote, “in part because the Trump campaign downplayed the risk of infection. … This feature heightens the risk that a rally could become a ‘superspreader event.'”

White House spokesperson Judd Deere told Politico the study was “flawed.”

“As the President has said, the cure cannot be worse than the disease and this country should be open armed with best practices and freedom of choice to limit the spread of Covid-19,” Deere said.